WTNT43 KNHC 060242 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016

1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF COLIN REMAINS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED, AND THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.

THE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION WELL TO THE

EAST OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LAST FOUND.  ANOTHER

HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM

AROUND 0600 UTC, AND THIS SHOULD BE VERY USEFUL FOR LOCATING THE

CENTER.



THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT

OBSERVATIONS AND A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER FROM TAFB.  STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF

COLIN BEFORE IT REACHES FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL

CONSENSUS.



INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 010/08.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING

HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO, COLIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD IN THE

FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LATER,

THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER

THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT

OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS OUTPUT.



IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS AND

COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=