WTNT43 KNHC 051501 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016

1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016



THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS

MORNING.  SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION

HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THE LOW AS A

TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN

A BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS REPORTED 25

TO 30 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THIS IS THE BASIS

FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.



THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG WIND

SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.

ALTHOUGH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE

IN WINDS, THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME DEEPENING. THE NHC

FORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR THE

DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST

OF FLORIDA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL OVER

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/7 KT.  THE DEPRESSION

IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD, THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER

FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING=