WTNT42 KNHC 280236 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE

PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A

SOMEWHAT LINEAR BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT, CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST TAFB

AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE BIGGEST POSITIVE FACTOR FOR THE

CYCLONE INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS IS ITS MOVEMENT OVER

THE GULF STREAM, WHERE SSTS ARE ABOVE 27C. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THESE COMPETING FACTORS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24-36

HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 36 HOURS,

A TRACK OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD

RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A

REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10, WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY

SITUATED BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

AND A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA

COAST. THESE FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, BOTH OF

THESE SYNOPTIC STEERING FEATURES WEAKEN WHILE A BROAD MID/UPPER-

LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN

SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN

NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS. THROUGH DAY 3 THE NHC

TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, AND LIES A=