WTNT42 KNHC 272057 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016



AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON,

SOUTH CAROLINA, INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A

WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION.  WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S INCREASE IN

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, THE SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED.  THE STRONGEST RELIABLE SFMR

SURFACE WIND MEASURED WAS 30 KT, AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY SET FOR

THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KT. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH 36 HOURS

OR SO, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THAT TIME. BY 48 HOURS, HOWEVER,

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE,

RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A

SHARP DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING THE

COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND, THE CYCLONE IS

FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD OFF OF THE COAST

OF NORTH CAROLINA AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO, WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN

FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS

MODEL TVCN AND HAS INCORPORATED THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF THE

ECMWF MODEL.



THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER SEA SURFACE=