WTIO51 PGTW 192100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 160519185252 2016051918 01B ROANU 007 01 030 09 SATL 040 T000 164N 0836E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD T012 177N 0852E 045 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 192N 0876E 050 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD T036 209N 0904E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 230N 0933E 030 AMP 036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 83.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 83.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.7N 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.2N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.9N 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.0N 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 84.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 191609Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE DERIVED FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THESE DYNAMICS ARE TEMPERED BY THE CYCLONES PROXIMITY TO LANDMASS. TC 01B IS STEERED BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UP TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TC ROANU WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 42 IN THE VICINITY OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A 45-KNOT SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING INLAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// 0116051406 62N 840E 20 0116051412 64N 836E 20 0116051418 66N 832E 20 0116051500 68N 828E 25 0116051506 70N 824E 25 0116051512 73N 821E 25 0116051518 77N 818E 25 0116051600 81N 816E 25 0116051606 85N 813E 25 0116051612 89N 812E 25 0116051618 94N 809E 25 0116051700 101N 809E 25 0116051706 108N 810E 25 0116051712 113N 812E 30 0116051718 122N 814E 30 0116051800 130N 815E 30 0116051806 139N 815E 40 0116051812 146N 816E 40 0116051818 149N 816E 45 0116051821 152N 816E 45 0116051900 151N 819E 45 0116051906 152N 824E 50 0116051912 156N 831E 50 0116051918 164N 836E 40