WTIO31 PGTW 210900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 013//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 013

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   210600Z --- NEAR 22.0N 91.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 21 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 91.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   211800Z --- 24.0N 93.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   220600Z --- 25.8N 96.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 91.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH REVEALS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED

ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS

BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND

KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND

MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01B IS

ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG STEERING INFLUENCE OF

LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW. TC ROANU IS FORECAST TO

MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH BETWEEN 07-09Z,

AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS VALUES AND

LAND INFLUENCES. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSPATE OVER LAND BY

TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE

SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 22

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//