WTIO31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.9N 88.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.4N 90.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.1N 93.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.7N 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 86.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200351Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO 3.5 (55 KNOTS), SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. TC 01B IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 24, TC 01B SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 30 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//