WTIO31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 84.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.0N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.1N 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.8N 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 84.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND EARLY HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WITHIN THE PAST THREE HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REESTABLISHED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FORMED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 192105Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. WITH THE CDO OBSCURING THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND THE POOR MICROWAVE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF BURMA PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA NEAR 30 DEG CELSIUS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, BUT PROXIMITY TO THE INDIAN LANDMASS IS TEMPERING DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AS TC 01B CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. AS THE TRACK MOVES SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, TC ROANU IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS. THE SYSETM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 IN THE VICINITY OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AS A 50 KNOT SYSTEM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN BURMA BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//