WTIO31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 83.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 83.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.7N 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.2N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.9N 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.0N 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 84.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 191609Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE DERIVED FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, THESE DYNAMICS ARE TEMPERED BY THE CYCLONES PROXIMITY TO LANDMASS. TC 01B IS STEERED BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UP TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BEFORE GRADUALLY DECAYING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TC ROANU WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 42 IN THE VICINITY OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, AS A 45-KNOT SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING INLAND BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//