WTIO31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 82.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 82.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.2N 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.2N 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.3N 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.5N 88.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.5N 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.2N 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 82.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 190201Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD CENTER WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT T3.0 (45 KNOTS) SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TC 01B IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR ERODES AND RE- ORIENTS DUE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 36, TC 01B SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//