WTIO31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 81.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 81.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.2N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.8N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.9N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.2N 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.7N 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.0N 94.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD AND DEEP CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 181006Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS A LARGE SPIRAL BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION STRETCHING NEARLY 350 NM ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS A REASONABLY WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND THE SSMIS CENTER WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS GIVEN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATING SEVERAL 40 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC ONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE (NESR) BUILDS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 50 TO 60 KNOTS, WITH HWRF ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPREAD. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48, THE NESR WILL REORIENT AND MOVE EQUATORWARD AND TC ONE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE TROUGH, COUPLED WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN THAT REGION WILL LEAD TO A DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS INDICATING LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. BASED ON THE IMPROVING AVAILABILITY OF GUIDANCE AND LOW SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TH JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//