WTIO31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 81.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 81.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.1N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.1N 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.9N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.9N 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.0N 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.7N 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 81.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CLOUD SHIELD CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM A MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN TO A MORE CHARACTERISTIC TROPICAL STRUCTURE. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A SYMMETRIC CENTER, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM (40 KNOT) WINDS AT APPROXIMATELY 25 NM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STRUCTURE IS BASED ON THE ASCAT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT DUE TO UNREPRESENTATIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC ONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE (NESR) BUILDS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48, THE NESR WILL REORIENT AND MOVE EQUATORWARD AND TC ONE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AS THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON TC ONE, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. //