WTXS51 PGTW 170900 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 160417065456 2016041706 19S FANTALA 012 01 300 10 SATL 010 T000 106S 0526E 130 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 099S 0514E 130 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T024 096S 0505E 125 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T036 098S 0500E 115 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD T048 106S 0507E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD T072 123S 0532E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD T096 142S 0558E 100 T120 166S 0587E 105 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 9.9S 51.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 9.6S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 9.8S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 10.6S 50.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.3S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.2S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.6S 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 52.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL CORE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A SHARP 11-NM EYE FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING, THE CORE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. IN LIEU OF THIS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DECREASING TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO ASSUME STEERING. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHARP POLEWARD TURN TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS MODERATE VWS AND THE RESTRICTED OUTFLOW HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE ANOTHER STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALLOWING AN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PHASE PRIOR TO VWS INCREASING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGREEING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE POLEWARD TURN LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// 1916041012 118S 750E 20 1916041018 122S 742E 20 1916041100 125S 734E 20 1916041106 127S 728E 25 1916041112 128S 722E 30 1916041118 129S 714E 35 1916041200 129S 705E 45 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 130 1916041706 106S 526E 130 1916041706 106S 526E 130