WTXS31 PGTW 162000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 11.5S 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.7S 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.0S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 9.8S 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 10.0S 50.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 10.8S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.9S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.8S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 54.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED CYCLONE WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 12-NM EYE IN A VERY DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TC FANTALA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY ASSUME STEERING. AFTER AN APPROXIMATELY 12-HOUR OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, TC 19S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER. TC FANTALA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECASTPERIOD AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC FANTALAWILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT REGAINS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE POLEWARD TURN. DUE TO THIS SPREAD AND THE COMPLEX STEERING SCENARIO, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//