WTXS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 61.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 61.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.2S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 12.2S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.9S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.4S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.3S 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 10.6S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 11.8S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 61.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 141718Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 19S HAS BECOME A BIT LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-EVIDENT EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG, IT APPEARS THAT RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS TC 19S TRACKS WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF LESS-THAN- OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AROUND TAU 72 AS THE STEERING PATTERN REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. TC 19S SHOULD ACCELERATE OUT OF THIS TRANSITIONING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 120. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM AND DEPENDENT MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONSENSUS MODEL GROUPING AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION EXPECTED DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//