WTXS31 PGTW 132100 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 65.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 65.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.6S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.7S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.7S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 12.6S 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.8S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.1S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.2S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 64.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CORE CONVECTION FORMING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH NO DISCERNABLE EYE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. A 131647Z AMSU-B 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FULLY SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC FANTALA CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 AND THROUGH TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS AND REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. BY TAU 120, THE STR WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH. TC FANTALA CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN OVERALL VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS STILL ENTRAINING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST SECTORS, RESULTING IN THE CURRENT SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE. OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, THE MOISTURE ENVELOPE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 60. BEYOND TAU 60, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OUTFLOW AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.// BT