WTXS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 66.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 66.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 12.9S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.9S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.8S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.6S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.2S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.6S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.0S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 5-NM EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. A 130252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CORE CONVECTION NOW FULLY SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOTED IMPROVEMENT IN ALL IMAGERY. TC FANTALA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. TC 19S IS TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//