WTXS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 12.8S 68.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 68.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 12.7S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 12.6S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.6S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.5S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 12.3S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.7S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.1S 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 68.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENED APPEARANCE AS COMPARED TO 12 HOURS AGO, THOUGH IT IS IMPROVING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REFORM AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 121707Z AMSU- B 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN 121356Z AMSR-2 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND THE DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. COUNTERING THESE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ENTRAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. TC 19S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY TAU 24, ALLOWING TC FANTALA TO PICK UP SPEED ONCE AGAIN WHILE MAINTAINING ITS WESTWARD TRACK. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THIS STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 24, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND SHEAR DECREASING AS A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. BEYOND TAU 72, A REDUCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SPREAD ONCE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//