WTXS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 71.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 71.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.0S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.1S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.1S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.7S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 12.4S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.0S 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 71.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONVERGING INTO A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 111945Z PARTIAL AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19S IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND INCREASING EQUATORWARD, OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) EFFECTIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS VECTOR IS FROM THE EAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. TC FANTALA IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE SAME STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, TC FANTALA WILL BEGIN MOVING A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT TO A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 96. TC FANTALA WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN CLIMATOLOGY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES AS A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE LLCC. BETWEEN TAUS 24-36 THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, THOUGH CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WHICH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN MOISTENS, ALLOWING TC 19S TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS BY TAU 72. AS THE FORWARD MOTION BEGINS TO SLOW BY TAU 96 THROUGH TAU 120, TC FANTALA WILL INDUCE A LOCALIZED REDUCTION IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TAU??S LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//