WTIO30 FMEE 221815



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.3 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/23 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/04/23 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/04/24 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/04/24 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

60H: 2016/04/25 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/04/25 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/26 18 UTC: 7.2 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

120H: 2016/04/27 18 UTC: 5.8 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0, CI=4.5



THE DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT SURROUNDS FANTALA HAS REDUCED THE SIZE OF

THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED OF THE SYSTEM. IT ONLY REMAINS A CDO

ABOUT 100 NM OF WIDTH. WITHIN THIS CDO, 85GHZ 1519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE

IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE CONVECTION RING SURROUNDING BY A 5MN TINY

EYE.



THE BUILDING OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A

LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD

GENERATE PROGRESSIVELY A SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW. SO, FANTALA IS

FORECASTED TO PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WESTNORTHWEST.



ON THIS TRACK, FANTALA SHOULD EVOLVE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN

WIND BELT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SO, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOUD REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, FANTALA IS

EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A TRACK THAT IT HAD ALREADY FOLLOWED TWICE...! THE

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME VERY WEAK ! LAST,

ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SOUTHEASTWARD

STEERING FLOW SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DRY UP FANTALA'S ENVIRONMENT. SO,

WITH THESE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY FOR A

MIDGET SYSTEM), FANTALA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.=