WTIO30 FMEE 140036



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/14 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 64.3 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/14 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/15 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/16 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/17 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS SOMEWHAT CHANGED. 2022Z

GCOM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS ALWAYS A WELL DEFINED EYE. OVER THE LAST

INFRARED IMAGERIES, EYE BECOMES AGAIN APPARENT THAT SEEMS INDICATE A

NEW INTENSIFICATION STAGE.



FANTALE CONTINUES TO TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCAREIGNES

ISLAND. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA SHOULD

GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD ORIENTATE PROGRESSIVELY THE TRACK

NORTHWESTWARD. FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT APPROXIMATIVELY 100

NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA SATURDAY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE.

FROM SUNDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND

FANTALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE BEGINNING A RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARDS

THE SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY UNDER THE NORTWESTERN STEERING FLOW OF AN

UPPER/MID NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE OVERALL IN

AGREEMENT BUT AT THIS TERM OF FORECAST, THE LOCATION OF THE TURN, IN

THE VICINITY OF FARQUHAR ISLAND, IS UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER, THE LAST

ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION RUN SUGGEST THAT A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD

MOTION TRACK WHICH COULD CROSS OVER FARQUHAR ISLAND IS NOT EXCLUDED.



FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT

FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY (BUT STILL EXCELLENT POLEWARDS). WEST OF

55E, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD DECREASE AND COULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY

OF THE SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY IF FANTALA SLOWS DOWN  AND TURNS BACK AS

FORECASTING BY GFS AND ECMWF).=