WTIO30 FMEE 131817



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/13 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 65.2 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL TWO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 130

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/14 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/14 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/15 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/15 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/16 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/16 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/17 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5;CI=5.0



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. EYE

DISAPPEARED AND AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN WAS DISPLAYED WITH WARMING

UP CLOUD TOPS. MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (1416Z AND SSMIS 1343Z) SHOW

ALWAYS A WELL DEFINED EYE WHICH HAS INCREASE IN WIDTH.



FANTALE CONTINUES TO TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCAREIGNES

ISLAND. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA SHOULD

GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD ORIENTATE PROGRESSIVELY THE TRACK

NORTHWESTWARD. FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT APPROXIMATIVELY 100

NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA SATURDAY MORNING TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE.

FROM SUNDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND

FANTALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE BEGINNING A RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARDS

THE SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY UNDER THE NORTWESTERN STEERING FLOW OF AN

UPPER/MID NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE OVERALL IN

AGREEMENT BUT AT THIS TERM OF FORECAST, THE LOCATION OF THE TURN, IN

THE VICINITY OF FARQUHAR ISLAND, IS UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER, THE LAST

ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION RUN SUGGEST THAT A TRACK KEEPING ON A

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION REMAINS ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH EXPLAIN A

LARGE MODEL DISPERSION IN THE LONG TERM.



FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT

FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY (BUT STILL EXCELLENT POLEWARDS). WEST OF

55E, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD DECREASE AND COULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY

OF THE SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY IF FANTALA SLOWS DOWN  AND TURNS BACK AS

FORECASTING BY GFS AND ECMWF).=