WTIO30 FMEE 130646



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/13 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 66.7 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/13 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/14 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/14 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/15 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/15 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/16 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/17 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5+



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WARM SPOT THAT APPEARED AT 00Z REMAINED

DISPLAYED ON IR IMAGES, SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. VIS

IMAGES REVEALS AN EYE, THOUGH NOT WELL DEFINED YET. LAST MW DATA,

LIKE 0252Z SSMIS, SHOW A RELATIVELY SMALL WELL ORGANISED CENTRAL

CORE. DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD.



WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THE MID LEVEL PATTERN TO THE SOUTH OF FANTALA

SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE MERIDIAN WITH BUILDING HIGHS THAT

SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN

UPPER/MID TROUGH EAST OF 70E, THAT SHOULD FINALLY NOT SO MUCH

INFLUENCE THE TRACK. FANTALA SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO

WEST-NORTH-WEST TRACK THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS

WEEK-END, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD AS THE

STR REMAINS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT TENDS TO

GRADUALLY WEAKEN. UP TO SUNDAY NIGHT, GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE

OVERALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOME DIFFERENCE PERSIST

IN TERM OF FORWARD MOTION. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO

SLIGHTLY TURN SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST

THAT A TRACK KEEPING A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION REMAINS ALSO

POSSIBLE.



FANTALA IS FORECAST TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (BUT STILL EXCELLENT POLEWARDS). GIVEN FANTALA'S

SMALL SIZE AND CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC

CONDITIONS, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR

OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MONDAY, AS FANTALA SLOWS DOWN, THE WARM

WATERS LAYER IS SHRINKING. THUS, FANTALA COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY

WHILE QUICKLY CONSUMING THE WEAK OHC AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA.



 ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

SHOULD NEARING THE AGALEGA SECTOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=