WTIO30 FMEE 121229



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/12 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 68.8 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70

48 KT NE:  SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/13 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/13 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/14 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/14 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/15 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH AN

IMPROVEMENT CDO PATTERN. THE LAST 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (AMSR2

0807Z AND SSMI 0949Z) SHOW AN EYE FEATURE ALMOST CLOSED. THANKS TO

THESE DATA, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS RAISED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL

STORM STAGE.



THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO

MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST. WITHIN THE NEXT

DAYS, THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE

MERIDIAN WITH  HIGHS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE

SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER/MID TROUGH EAST OF 70E. IN

RESPONSE, FANTALA SHOULD CURVE EASTNORTHEASTWARD FROM TOMORROW. AT

TERM OF FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD

WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFTING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. UP TO SUNDAY,

AVAILABLE MODELS ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOME

DIFFERENCE PERSIST IN TERM OF SPEED. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS AN

INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS.



FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO TRACKING BENEATH THE SUBTOPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL EQUATORWARD (BUT STILL GOOD TO THE SOUTH) AND

A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS EVEN POSSIBLE. THESE ELEMENTS COULD

SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION.=