WTXS51 PGTW 202100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 160320195624 2016032018 15S EMERAUDE 011 01 245 02 SATL 040 T000 111S 0871E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD T012 116S 0862E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD T024 119S 0851E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 121S 0836E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 122S 0821E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 123S 0812E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 126S 0804E 055 T120 134S 0797E 060 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 011 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 87.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 87.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 11.6S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.9S 85.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.1S 83.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 12.2S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.3S 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.6S 80.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.4S 79.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 897 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND A BAND OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TC EMERAUDE, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SUMATRA IS DISRUPTING OUTFLOW FROM TC 15S AND SHEARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS TC 15S MOVES WESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT AROUND 29 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72. TC EMERAUDE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER OFFSETS A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM IS SHIFTING FROM A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER AND ACCELERATE TC EMERAUDE TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM TO AID SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE TRACK SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSISTS. HOWEVER, THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, UKMET, ECMWF, AND HWRF TRACK SOLUTIONS LIE IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THESE SOLUTIONS DUE TO THEIR ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.// 1516031506 113S 867E 25 1516031512 112S 862E 30 1516031518 111S 858E 40 1516031600 110S 854E 50 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031706 105S 841E 125 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031712 105S 840E 120 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031718 104S 839E 115 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031800 101S 842E 105 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031806 101S 848E 85 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031812 101S 853E 70 1516031818 102S 859E 60 1516031818 102S 859E 60 1516031900 104S 865E 65 1516031900 104S 865E 65 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031906 105S 869E 70 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031912 106S 872E 75 1516031918 107S 873E 75 1516031918 107S 873E 75 1516031918 107S 873E 75 1516032000 108S 874E 70 1516032000 108S 874E 70 1516032000 108S 874E 70 1516032006 109S 874E 70 1516032006 109S 874E 70 1516032006 109S 874E 70 1516032012 110S 873E 65 1516032012 110S 873E 65 1516032018 111S 871E 60 1516032018 111S 871E 60