WTXS51 PGTW 172100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 160317201955 2016031718 15S EMERAUDE 005 01 225 01 SATL 020 T000 105S 0838E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 107S 0841E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 110S 0850E 115 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T036 115S 0861E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD T048 120S 0868E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD T072 132S 0876E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 140S 0872E 095 T120 150S 0861E 090 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 10.5S 83.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 83.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.7S 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.0S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.5S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.0S 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.2S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.0S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 83.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z. // 1516031400 107S 879E 15 1516031406 109S 877E 15 1516031412 111S 874E 15 1516031418 112S 871E 20 1516031500 112S 868E 25 1516031506 112S 866E 25 1516031512 112S 863E 30 1516031518 111S 858E 40 1516031600 110S 854E 50 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031606 108S 849E 55 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031612 107S 847E 75 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031618 106S 844E 90 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031700 105S 842E 95 1516031706 104S 840E 125 1516031706 104S 840E 125 1516031706 104S 840E 125 1516031712 104S 839E 120 1516031712 104S 839E 120 1516031712 104S 839E 120 1516031718 105S 838E 115 1516031718 105S 838E 115 1516031718 105S 838E 115