WTXS51 PGTW 152100 WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 160315201434 2016031518 15S FIFTEEN 001 01 270 04 SATL 045 T000 112S 0859E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 111S 0856E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD T024 110S 0858E 065 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 030 NW QD T036 112S 0863E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 115 SW QD 045 NW QD T048 116S 0872E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD T072 124S 0892E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 134S 0915E 085 T120 151S 0916E 085 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 85.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 85.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.1S 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.0S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.2S 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.6S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.4S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.1S 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 85.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 831 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. // 1516031400 107S 879E 15 1516031406 109S 877E 15 1516031412 111S 874E 15 1516031418 112S 871E 20 1516031500 112S 868E 25 1516031506 112S 866E 25 1516031512 112S 863E 30 1516031518 112S 859E 40