WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 84.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 84.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 10.5S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 10.2S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.3S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.8S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.8S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.1S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.5S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 84.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH A BANDING EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15S IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC EMERAUDE WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ASSUMES STEERING. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THEY ARE AT VARYING DEGREES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLICATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//