WTXS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151651ZMAR2016// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 85.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 85.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.1S 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 11.0S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.2S 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.6S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.4S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4S 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.1S 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 85.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 831 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE CONSOLIDATION, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 151551Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. INFRARED IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES FORMATION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW AND THE AMSU IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NOTED FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STEADY TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST IN THE ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AND POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, ALTHOUGH THE GFDN AND COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICT OUTLYING EASTWARD TRACKS THROUGH TAU 120. THESE OUTLYING TRACKS MAY RESULT FROM DEPENDENCE ON THE NAVGEM INITIALIZATION FIELDS, WHICH DEPICT TC 15S AS ERRONEOUSLY WEAK AND NON-DEVELOPING. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE, CONSISTING OF THE GFS, GEFS, HWRF, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS, DISAGREE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND DIRECTION OF THE NEAR-TERM TURN TO THE EAST AND EXTENDED-TERM WESTWARD TURN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS, GEFS, HWRF MODEL GROUPING GIVEN THE ACCURATE ANALYSIS AND REALISTIC DEVELOPMENT PATTERN DEPICTED IN THESE MODELS. DUE TO NOTED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 151700).//