WTIO30 FMEE 210703



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/6/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/21 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 86.8 E

(ELEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SW: 250 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 180 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/21 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 85.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

24H: 2016/03/22 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

36H: 2016/03/22 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

48H: 2016/03/23 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

60H: 2016/03/23 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

72H: 2016/03/24 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/25 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/03/26 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5- CI=3.0-



RE-ANALYSE OF MW DATA OF THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS IN THE LIGHT OF THE

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY ALLOW A RELOCATION OF THE TRACK FURTHER NORTH:

00Z POSITION RE-ASSESSED NEAR 11S - 87.2E. UNDER THE IMPEDING EFFECT

OF THE RATHER STRONG NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL IS NOW QUASI

DISCONNECTED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS QUITE STRONG OVER

THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS THEREFORE

SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST PARTIAL ASCAT-A DATA

OF 0348Z WHICH SHOW MARGINAL 35 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.



DESPITE THE RELOCATION, CURRENT POSITION AND FORWARD SPEED REMAIN

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO POOR DEFINITION OF THE LLCC. EMERAUDE SEEMS

TO HAVE BEND WESTWARD, ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE HIGH

GEOPOTENTIAL CELL. THIS TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN UNTIL

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME ALL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF

THE SYSTEM ... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE SHEAR FORECAST

(THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LAST DURING THE NEXT

24/36H), A RE-INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY UKMO AND GFS SEEMS LESS

LIKELY THAN THE FILLING UP TREND SUGGESTED BY THE EURO ON A

CONTINUING WESTWARDS TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK SHOW, FOR THE MOMENT,

ONLY A MARGINAL RE-INTENSIFICATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SST.=