WTIO30 FMEE 201224



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/20 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 87.3 E

(ELEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 70

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/21 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/03/22 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/03/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2016/03/23 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2016/03/23 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/24 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/03/25 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED NEAR THE CENTER,

WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION. MICRO-WAVES IMAGES AND CIMSS DATA

SUGGEST THE EXISTENCE OF AN EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VWS (18KT AT 06Z). SO

EMERAUDE CENTER IS LOCATED NORTH-EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THRUST.



EMERAUDE HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST. FROM TOMORROW, EMERAUDE'S

TRACK SHOULD KEEP ON BENDING WESTWARD, ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE DISPERSION AMONG THE

MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASING, WITH THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH

AT SOUTH. EMERAUDE SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING SOUTH OR TRACK

WESTWARDS.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR GENERATED BY AN UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE, IS EXPECTED TO STAY. TOMORROW, MID LEVEL DRY AIR MASS IS

LIKELY TO REACH THE INNER CORE AND THUS PREVENT FROM ANY FURTHER

DEEPENING, DESPITE THE HIGHER OHC WATERS WEST OF 85AOE. FROM

THURSDAY,A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS PURE

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.



GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATIONS (INCLUDING RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY.=