WTIO30 FMEE 191230



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/19 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 87.0 E

(TEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/20 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 87.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/03/21 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/03/22 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/22 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 82.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/23 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/03/24 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO PATTERN REMAINED QUITE WELL DEFINED ON

THE IR IMAGERY. CLOUD TOPS WERE STILL VERY COLD IN THE CENTRAL AREA,

WHICH HAS EXPANDED. HOWEVER, VIS IMAGES STILL SHOW THE EFFECTS OF A

LIGHT SOUTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT ON THE CLOUD PATTERN. MOREOVER, AMSU

0907Z MW DATA REVEAL THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE HAS DETERIORATED A

LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS

BEEN ANALYSED AS STATIONARY.



EMERAUDE HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST. FROM TOMORROW, EMERAUDE'S

TRACK SHOULD KEEP ON BENDING WESTWARD, ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE DISPERSION AMONG THE

MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASING. THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS DISAPPEARING,

EMERAUDE SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-EASTWARD AGAIN, AHEAD

OF A TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST.



ALONG THIS TRACK, EMERAUDE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED UNDER THE

WESTERN BORDER OF THE EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVELS RIDGE, AND THUS UNDERGO

A LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THUS POSSIBLY

COMPENSATING THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE WIND SHEAR. AS IT CROSSES

THE 85AOE, EMERAUDE SHOULD COME BACK OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OHC, BUT

THE WRAPPING OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM MONDAY MAY SOMEWHAT

LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION BY DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE INPUT.

DEALING WITH THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, EMERAUDE SHOULD CONTINUE

A SLOW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,

THE EXPECTED SLOWDOWN SHOULD REDUCE THE ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL, AS A

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ADDITIONALLY APPEAR FROM THURSDAY.



GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATIONS (INCLUDING RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY.=