WTIO30 FMEE 190100



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/19 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 86.5 E

(TEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/18 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 90 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/03/20 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/03/21 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2016/03/22 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/23 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/03/24 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0



THE LAST MW DATA OF 21H08Z CONFIRMNTHE INTENSIFICATIO OF THE SYSTEM,

AND THE LAST SATELITE PRESENTATION SHOWS A REGULAR CDO STRUCTURE.



A MERAUDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE

OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A

BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH, A MERAUDE SHOULD

RECURVE SOUTHWARD, AND THEN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM SUNDAY. AT THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC

RIDGE DISAPEARS PROGRESSIVELY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEARLY SLOW

DOWN.

THE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS EVOLUTION,

HOWEVER WITH IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES OF SPEED..



ON THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, THE

SYSTEM TRACKING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT MAY TEMPORALY

UNDERGO A SMALL NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT ON SUNDAY.

FROM THE BEGINING OF THE NEXT WEEK, CROSSING WEST OF 85AOE, EMERAUDE

SHOULD COME BACK OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OHC, BUT THE EXISTANE OF DRY

AIR IN MID-LEVEL FRON MONDAY MAY LIMITATE A LITTLE ITS

INTENSIFICATION.



DEALING WITH THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, A MERAUDE SHOULD

CONTINUE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, BEFORE THE EXPECTED SLOWDOWN REDUICE

THE ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATIONS (INCLUDING RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY.=