WTIO30 FMEE 181839



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/18 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 85.8 E

(TEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 90 NW: 60

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/19 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 86.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/03/19 18 UTC: 11.2 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/03/20 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/03/20 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2016/03/21 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/21 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/22 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/03/23 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5+



THE VERY LAST SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF

THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS REBUILD OVER THE CENTER SINCE 12Z, THIS IS

CONFIRMED BY THE LAST AMSU DATA OF 15H44Z SHOWING A CURVED BAND OF

DEEP CONVECTION.



A MERAUDE IS MOVING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE

OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A

BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH, A MERAUDE SHOULD

RECURVE SOUTHWARD, AND THEN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM SUNDAY, AND TO

KEEP ON THIS TRACK UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS EVOLUTION.



ON THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, THE

SYSTEM TRACKING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

FROM THE BEGINING OF THE NEXT WEEK, CROSSING WEST OF 85AOE, EMERAUDE

SHOULD COME BACK OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OHC.

WITH THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, A MERAUDE HAS A GOOD

POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AGAIN UP TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BUT, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATIONS (INCLUDING

RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY.=