WTIO30 FMEE 180647



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9 S / 84.5 E

(NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 90 NW: 60

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 30

48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW:

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/18 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/03/19 06 UTC: 10.7 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2016/03/19 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/03/20 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/03/20 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/21 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/22 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/03/23 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0, CI=4.0-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN,

AND THE CLOUDS TOP WARMED UP. THE INTENSITY HAS WEAKEN. THE ASCAT

SWATH AT 04Z CONFIRMS THIS WEAKENING TREND.

THE LOWERING OF THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF

THE SYSTEM, MAY BE THE MAIN FACTOR OF WEAKENING, COUPLED WITH AN

UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.



EMERAUDE IS TRACKING EAST-NORTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF

A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. DURING THE WEEK-END, THE TRACK

SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS GLOBAL TRACK,

WITH LIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT SPEED.



ON THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE,

THE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

THE INTENSITY SHOULD DEPEND CLOSELY FROM THE OHC, THAT SHOULD BECOME

MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS, THANKS TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF

THE SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE

SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATIONS (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID

DECAY) ARE LIKELY.=