WTIO30 FMEE 171222



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/17 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.0 E

(TEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   QUASI-STATIONARY



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 110

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 70

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 50



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/18 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/03/19 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 88.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/03/20 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/03/22 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.5 CI 6.0+.



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION SUFFER FROM

DIURNAL EFFECT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE EYE HAS

SLIGHTLY BECONE LARGER, BUT REMAIN VERY HOT.



EMERAUDE SEEMS TO BE QUITE STATIONARY ON THE VERY LAST SATELITE

IMAGERY, AND SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW

OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS NORTH-EAST. DURING THE

WEEK-END, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DIFFER SOMETIMES STRONGLY

ABOUT THE FORWARD SPEED LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE

BETWEEN THEM AND ALSO FROM ONE RUN TO THE OTHER. THE CURRENT FORECAST

IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST MEAN TRACK

FROM GFS-UK-EURO AND GFS ( A LESS CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN GIVEN TO THE

LAST RUN OF EURO, AS THE INTENSITY IS TO WEAK IN THE MODEL) AND THE

LACK OF STABILITY OF THE NWP DATA.



ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONDUCIVE

DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A STILL IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

POLEWARDS DUE TO THE REMOTE EFFECT OF A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE A LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE

LATER THIS WEEK-END ESSENTIALLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY VWS.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD PASS OVER

SELF-INDUCED COOL WATERS. MOREOVER, THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS, SUCH AS

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH IS VERY LIKELY WITH MATURE SYSTEM BUT

WITH POOR FORECAST SKILL, COULD REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.

GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY, BRINGING UNCERTAINTIES

IN THE FORECAST.=