WTIO30 FMEE 161227



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/16 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E

(TEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/17 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/03/17 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 84.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/03/18 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/03/19 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 90.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/03/21 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5+



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN OCEANIC AND

ATMOSPHERIC FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DURING THE LAST 6

HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH THE BUILDING OF AN EYE IN INFRARED

IMAGERY. MOREOVER  MICROWAVES IMAGES OF 0646Z AND 1017Z, SUGGEST THAT

A CONTRACTION OF EMERAUDE CORE, INDICATING ALSO A DEEPENING. CURRENT

INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. HOWEVER, IT MAY

UNDERESTIMATE THE STRONGEST WINDS BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE OF THE

EYE. EMERAUDE STILL BENEFITS FROM AN VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

ON THE POLAR SIDE.



EMERAUDE SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST HOURS, AND SHOULD ORIENTATE ITS

TRACK PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS NORTH-EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN

AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL OPPOSED

STEERING FLOWS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEAN TRACK BETWEEN

THE MAIN NUMERICALS MODELS, ESPECIALLY ON GFS, WHICH IS INTERMEDIATE

BETWEEN UKMO AND THE EURO.



ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONDUCIVE

DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM

MAY REACH THE VERY INTENSE CYCLONE INTENSITY. FRIDAY, NORTH OF AN

UPPER TROUGH, AN INCREASE OF THE SHEAR, AND SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE

MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE

SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID

DECAY) ARE LIKELY, BRINGING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST.=