WTIO30 FMEE 160625



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (EMERAUDE)



2.A POSITION 2016/03/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 85.0 E

(TEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/03/16 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/03/17 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 85.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2016/03/17 18 UTC: 10.9 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/03/18 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/03/18 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 89.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/03/19 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 90.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/03/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 91.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/03/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 90.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN OCEANIC AND

ATMOSPHERIC FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DURING THE LAST 6

HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED NEAR THE CENTER. 85GHZ MICROWAVES

IMAGES OF 0033Z AND 0351Z, AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN IMPROVEMENT

OF THE PATTERN, WITH A BETTER DEFINED EYE. HOWEVER, ON THE LAST

INFRARED IMAGES, A SLIGHT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE, WITH

THE DISAPPEARANCE OF WARM SPOT. THE COMPACT SYSTEM, BENEFITS FROM A

GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ON THE POLAR SIDE.



EMERAUDE TRACK IS STILL BENDING NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD

ORIENTATE ITS TRACK PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF

A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS NORTH-EAST. FROM FRIDAY,

GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON ITS EVOLUTION DUE TO THE

PRESENCE OF SEVERAL POTENTIAL STEERING FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS

BASED ON A MEAN TRACK BETWEEN THE MAIN NUMERICALS MODELS, ESPECIALLY

ON GFS, WHICH IS INTERMEDIATE BETWEEN UKMO AND THE EURO.



ON THIS TRAJECTORY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY

CONDUCIVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY, AN INCREASE OF THE

NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID

INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) ARE LIKELY BRINGING UNCERTAINTIES IN

THE INTENSITY FORECAST.=