WTPS52 PGTW 260300 WARNING ATCG MIL 14P SWP 160226011827 2016022600 14P YALO 003 01 145 10 SATL 060 T000 217S 1533W 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 230S 1523W 035 T024 243S 1516W 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 21.7S 153.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 153.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.0S 152.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 24.3S 151.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 153.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. CORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING WITH NOTICEABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, WHICH ARE OBSCURING THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0 (35 AND 45 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY) FROM MULTIPLE FIXING AGENCIES. TC YALO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INITIAL INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO THIS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. TC YALO IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS TC YALO MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY HIGH (50 TO 60 KNOTS) VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. THESE EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z.// 1416022306 143S1603W 25 1416022312 147S1594W 25 1416022318 152S1585W 25 1416022400 159S1575W 25 1416022406 166S1565W 30 1416022412 174S1562W 30 1416022418 181S1560W 30 1416022500 185S1559W 35 1416022506 194S1555W 35 1416022512 201S1547W 50 1416022518 209S1539W 50 1416022600 217S1533W 40