WTPS52 PGTW 250300 WARNING ATCG MIL 14P SWP 160225014017 2016022500 14P FOURTEEN 001 02 165 04 SATL 060 T000 185S 1559W 035 T012 194S 1557W 040 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD T024 201S 1547W 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD T036 206S 1532W 040 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD T048 213S 1518W 035 T072 221S 1500W 030 AMP 048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 18.5S 155.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 155.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.4S 155.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.1S 154.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.6S 153.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 21.3S 151.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.1S 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 155.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING INTO A VERY COMPACT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241940Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MODERATELY WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36 VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE AS TC 14P INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS SHEAR AND SST VALUES BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 240730Z FEB 16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 240730). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 1416022306 143S1603W 25 1416022312 147S1594W 25 1416022318 152S1585W 25 1416022400 159S1575W 25 1416022406 166S1565W 30 1416022412 174S1562W 30 1416022418 181S1560W 30 1416022500 185S1559W 35