WTXS31 PGTW 190200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 24.1S 78.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 78.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 24.9S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.4S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.9S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 26.6S 76.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 28.3S 76.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 78.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 182220Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES URIAH IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 25S, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER SST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//