WTXS31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 84.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 84.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.4S 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.2S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.5S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.7S 78.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.3S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.0S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 83.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN SYSTEM STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 16NM EYE FEATURE. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM A 161249Z SSMIS PASS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. TC URIAH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION; 29 CELSIUS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. TC URIAH IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO PERSISTING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TC URIAH WILL TURN SOUTHWARD NEAR TAU 36 AS IT REACHES THE STEERING STR AXIS. CONCURRENTLY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CREATING A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL SLOW THE TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//