WTXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 87.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 87.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.1S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.5S 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.8S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.5S 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.1S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 22.2S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.5S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 87.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DUE PRIMARILY TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A 151004Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH SHOULD FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS NORTH-SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AS A STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//