WTIO30 FMEE 171221



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 80.1 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL ONE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 460 SW: 650 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 350 NW: 170

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/02/18 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/20 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/21 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/02/22 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=6.0+ CI=6.0+



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, URIAH HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, WITH

A WARMER EYE AND A COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC CDO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

ESPECIALLY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS. ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA,

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONGER (12KT) BUT WITH NO EFFECT ON THE

SYSTEM HEART FOR NOW.



TONIGHT, WITH THE REBUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD. FRIDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO

SLOW DOWN BECAUSE OF THE BUILDING OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW LARGE SPREAD FROM FRIDAY EVENING,

SUGGESTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP MODELS FORECAST A COMEBACK TO A

SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN ITS NORTHEAST AND

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH.



ON THIS TRACK, URIAH IS UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE INTENSITY, AS ITS MAXIMAL POTENTIAL INTENSITY (MPI) IS

ESTIMATED AT 110KT. OVERNIGHT, IT WILL LEAVE THESE WATERS RESPONSIBLE

FOR ITS DEEPENING, LEADING TO A SLOW FILLING. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS

SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS CONDUCIVE WITH THE INCREASE OF THE

NORTHWESTERLY VWS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN

UPPER TROUGH. THEN THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD BE MARGINAL SOUTH OF

23-24S, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT FILING. MOREOVER, THE SLOW MOTION

FORECAST FROM FRIDAY MAY PARTICIPATE IN THE COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING

SST.=