WTIO30 FMEE 150021



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 88.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 430 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 310 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/15 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/02/16 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/02/16 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/02/17 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/17 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5+.



DURING THE LAST HOURS DEEP CONVECTION IS ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO A

BROKEN CURVED BAND WRAPPING 0.9 AROUND THE CENTRE, AS SEEN ON THE

1858Z VAPOR GCOM DATA AND LAST SATELLITE IR IMAGERY. ON THE VERY LAST

IMAGERY, THIS BAND SEEMS TO BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LONGER SIZE.



DURING THE NEXT DAYS THE MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL

CONSTRAINT PRESENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE

WILL BE OFFSET BY A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY.



URIAH IS FORECAST TO GO ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING

INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST. UP TO

WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AS

THE RIDGE REBUILD IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

FROM FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE DECREASE OF

THE OCH SOUTH OF 23S.

NWP AVAILABLE MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS

SCENARIO.=