WTPS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 159.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 159.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.2S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.9S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.7S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.5S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.8S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 159.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRIC COLD DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111703Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY SPIRALED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TATIANA IS AN INDUCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST WHICH IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD. EXHAUST FROM TC WINSTON POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM TO THE EAST IS PREVENTING TC TATIANA FROM DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND WILL LIMIT INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AS TC TATIANA TRAVELS SOUTH BEYOND TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING EXHAUST PROVIDED FROM TC WINSTON AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT GIVING RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//