WTPS32 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 157.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 157.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.3S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.3S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.7S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.1S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 24.1S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 158.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 559 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATTELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 110551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 12P IS CURRENTLY A WEAKENING INDUCED RIDGE POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 11P (WINSTON) AND TC TATIANA, WHICH IS ALLOWING TC TATIANA TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 24 THIS INDUCED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE AND THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BECOME THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, TURNING TC TATIANA SOUTHWARD. TC TATIANA REMAINS IN A REGION OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS, WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC TATIANA BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TC TATIANA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GIVING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//