WTPS32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121Z FEB 16// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 156.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 156.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.3S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.4S 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.6S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.9S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.7S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.2S 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 26.2S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 156.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATTELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONFIRMED BY A 101716Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 101144Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS THE LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS AN INDUCED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 11P AND TC 12P WHICH WILL GUIDE 12P SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK. AFTER 36 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE RIDGE BETWEEN TC 11P AND TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND INTERACTION WITH TC 12P IS POSSIBLE GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100130). //