WTPS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 179.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.0S 178.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.0S 176.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.3S 175.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.8S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.6S 174.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.5S 175.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.0S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI, DEPICT A STRONG SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 160 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUE OF T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MOVES INTO OPEN WATERS WITH VERY HIGH SSTS, WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TURNING SOUTHWARD AND BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//