WTPS31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 177.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 177.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.4S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.5S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.8S 177.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.0S 176.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.9S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.6S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.6S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 178.0W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190928Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD, AS THE RIDGE RE- ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FIJI AROUND TAU 24, WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 125 AND 130 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTIONS. AFTER TAU 72, TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS, AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//